Premier League Standings Prediction

By Mr. Barnett

The Premier League is probably the most competitive league in world sports, let alone world soccer. This is just one of the things that makes it so hard to predict the results. Add in the fluidity of the January transfer window, manager roulette, and the rash of player controversies over the last few years, and things get down-right unpredictable.

All that being said, here is my best shot at predicting the final Premier League table of the season. This is being written after the 8th round of matches have concluded, so I had the advantage of knowing more than 20% of the outcomes of the season, but that still leaves a lot of guesswork to be made.

For those that don’t know, the Premier League (and most European leagues, for that matter) use a promotion and relegation system. Basically, each year, the bottom teams are pushed down into the next league down, and the best teams from that lower league are promoted into the top league. This makes each match important, with the bottom of the table matches actually being some of the most exciting matches, especially toward the end of the season. The bottom three teams in the Premier League have to play in the Championship (the second division) next year, which has a lot less prestige (and money). So, I’m going to start my list from the teams I think will be unfortunate enough to make the drop.

RELEGATION - These are the teams I expect to drop to the Championship next season.

20th Place - Luton Town

They have had a couple of positive results, but I just feel like the investment hasn’t been made to the extent that was needed to really give Luton a chance of survival.

19th Place - Sheffield United

Similar to Luton, Sheffield United did not sign the kind of quality needed to stay up. They are one of the teams that have mastered the bounce between the Prem and the Championship, though, so I expect them to be back soon.

18th Place - Burnley

Despite some major ownership excitement with outside investment, I don’t think Burnley has done enough yet to make it. They will likely remain competitive in the Championship and be back in the Premier League in the next couple of seasons, though.

SURVIVAL - These are the teams I think are going to survive, at least for this season.

17th Place - Bournemouth

I think this is going to be a last day decision, but I think Bournemouth are just going to make it into the last Premier League survival spot. This is not their first battle for survival, and I think that experience will be crucial coming to the final few matches.

16th Place - Nottingham Forest

This one pains me a bit, because I loved seeing Jesse Lingard’s heroics on loan to Forest, but I really think Nottigham are going to be struggling for survival over the next couple of seasons. They will probably make it this time, but it’s going to be a slippery slope.

15th Place - Everton

It doesn’t seem like too long ago that Everton were fighting for European spots. I don’t think they are going to drop, at least not yet. Between not having any major signings and fewer top level youth coming through the academy, Everton has slipped. Hopefully for their sake, they can reverse the downward trend soon, because relegation is a real threat in coming seasons.

14th Place - Fulham

This area of the table will be no stranger for Fulham. They will probably have a mixture of decent runs followed by strings of losses, which will land them firmly in the bottom half.

13th Place - Wolverhampton Wanderers

They have recently sold some major talent without the same quality coming back in. I’m afraid that is going to haunt them this season, though I don’t think they will really be in danger of relegation from here on out.

12th Place - Brentford

Brentford have been a bit of a surprise over the last couple of seasons with their performances, but they aren’t going to be able to surprise teams anymore. I think they are going to struggle to get points, but not so much that they are in any real danger of relegation.

11th Place - Crystal Palace

Losing Zaha is massive for Palace. I really don’t see the same amount of offensive threat in this team, and their defense is not going to be able to keep enough clean sheets to let them be 1-0 wonders.

10th Place - West Ham United

The Hammers seem to be a really streaky team to me right now. They will probably have a good run or two, but they will ultimately get too many draws against lower teams and lose against the big boys too often.

9th Place - Chelsea

Speaking of the big boys, here comes the first of the traditional heavy hitters to show up on my list. I really don’t think Chelsea are going to be able to figure out their chemistry issues and create a cohesive team. At least not this season. Probably in the next season or two they will be able to come good, but it’s going to be a painful road for the Blues until then.

8th Place - Aston Villa

The Villans have been flying, but I don’t see it lasting. It’s going to take just one or two key injuries or a few players losing their form to cripple this team. There just isn’t enough depth in this squad to allow for others to pick up the slack when struggles happen.

EUROPEAN CUP SPOTS - Here is where the real goal of many of the clubs in the Premier League lies. The top seven teams in the Premier League are likely to qualify for European competition of some sort. First through fourth get the major prize of competing in the UEFA Champions League for the next season. Fifth is guaranteed a spot in the UEFA Europa League. The winner of the FA Cup gets a spot in the Europa League and the winner of the League Cup gets a Conference League spot, unless they qualify for one of the higher tournaments through their league position. In that case, the next ranked team gets their spot. Exactly this happened in the 22/23 season, and I anticipate that it will happen again this season.

7th Place - Brighton and Hove Albion (UEFA Europa Conference League Qualification)

Again, another bright start but I think lack of depth will end up being the downfall here, but I think they have enough in them to qualify for Europe. There is a danger of Mitoma going down injured, which would completely destroy the season of the Seagulls.

6th Place - Newcastle United (UEFA Europa League Qualification)

Newcastle have a pretty solid starting lineup, but few on the fringes that are high enough quality to really push for a higher position for me. I know that their defense has been rock solid for large parts of the last season or so, but they are starting to show their age, and I think they are going to start leaking goals at an alarming rate soon. Time will tell!

5th Place - Liverpool (UEFA Europa League Qualification)

This is possibly wishful thinking as a Manchester United supporter, but I really don’t see Liverpool being able to mount the same top of the table charge that we have seen from them the last five years or so. Their defense is looking leakier than expected and they rely on just a couple of players being on form to really put the ball in the net. I could be wrong here, but I don’t think Liverpool are getting a Champions League spot this season.

4th Place - Manchester United (UEFA Champions League Qualification)

It hurts me to have to place United this low, but it’s been a rough start to the season. Injuries and player discipline issues have made the situation with club ownership an even bigger factor than it should be. I think that there will be some positive movement in January with a couple of major signings, which is why I think Manchester United will still qualify for the Champions League, but only just.

3rd Place - Tottenham Hotspur (UEFA Champions League Qualification)

Amazing start from the Spurs, really. I just don’t see them being able to maintain the momentum. The explosive start they have might honestly be out of spite, because everyone was telling them they were done after Kane left. But, that type of performance usually fizzles out sooner rather than later, and I expect them to lose steam about halfway through the season and struggle for consistency.

2nd Place - Arsenal (UEFA Champions League Qualification)

As much as I would like to put Arsenal at the top, just to keep the other option from winning, I really don’t see Arsenal overcoming their mental fragility that was exposed last season. They are an excellent team, and a year of additional experience will have helped the majority of their team, but they still are very reliant on a couple of key players performing well. They will push for the title, but ultimately I think they are going to just miss out. Again.

1st Place - Manchester City (UEFA Champions League Qualification)

Not going to lie, I really wish I could see anyone but Liverpool up at the top, but I think City are still too strong to not win. They have lost some of their dominance, but I think they still have the experience, ability, and will to win, and I do not recommend betting against Haaland. He is not the best link-up player, which has caused a shift in City’s attack, but there are few players out there who can put the ball in the back of the net like him, and his physical presence is enough to scare defenders into giving too much space to other City players. Unfortunately, I expect the noisy neighbors to be celebrating once again come the end of the season.